THE FUTURE OF ENCYCLOPEDIAS by Daniel H. Pink

“Imagine it’s 1996. You sit down with an accomplished economist. . . . You say to her: “I’ve got a crystal ball here that can peer fifteen years into the future. I’d like to test your forecasting powers. . .

I’m going to describe two new encyclopedias—one just out, the other to be launched in a few years. You have to predict which one will be more successful in 2011. . . The first encyclopedia comes from Microsoft, a large and profitable company. Microsoft will … pay professional writers and editors to craft articles on thousands of topics. Well compensated managers will oversea the project to make sure it is competed on budget and on time. Then Microsoft will sell the encyclopedia on CD-ROMS and later online.”

“The second encyclopedia will be created by tens of thousands of people who write and edit articles for fun. These hobbyist won’t need any special qualifications to participate. . . Participants will have to contribute their labor for free.”

In 1996, I doubt you could have found a single sober economist anywhere on planet Earth who would not have picked that first model as the success.”