CHINA'S INTERESTS by Bruce Nussbaum

“After decades of framing itself in terms of ‘partner’ and ‘participant’ in the global system, China in 2010 revealed its aspirational identity as challenger to the economic and political status quo and, specifically, the U.S. In a single year, China expressed its ascendancy in terms of irredentism (the Sprately and Paracel islands, like Taiwan, are now “core” national interests); mercantilsim (indigenous innovation, local content rules, and local control of partnerships are designed to force massive transfers of foreign technology); militarism (clashing with Japan, hacking into Google and foreign technology companies and government agencies, and expanding its blue water navy with an aircraft carrier and missile capacities); ideological (projecting its authoritarian state capitalist economic model as an alternative to failed liberal market capitalism). These are all expressions of national interests and represent strong centripetal pulls away from globalization.

Generational change is also playing a critical role in the expression of Chinese nationalism. Research performed by Western consulting companies reveal that the members of Gen 1, the 300-to-400 million 16-28 cohort born into China's new prosperity, are far more nationalistic than their parents. Born into One-Child families, often raised by grandparents or family members other than their parents, their social ties are loose and they identify uniformly as consumers. They have little knowledge of the Cultural Revolution or Tianamen Square. Despite the publicity surrounding political dissidents, research shows that the overwhelming majority of young Chinese are proud of their government and accept its authority and direction. Unlike their parents, Gen 1ers prefer Chinese over Western brands. They are very sensitive to perceived Western insults to a rising China. Gen 1 is often overtly anti-American, thanks to an education system that consistently frames the U.S. as an enemy. This rising generation reflects and reinforces China's growing nationalism. . . .

America's rising nationalism is taking a different form but it is powerful nonetheless. The positive consensus toward globalization that defined the U.S. economic model for many decades is unraveling as a result of the recent recession. The benefits of globalization are increasingly going to corporations and banks and a small number of elite beneficiaries, while the middle class gains little. The burst housing bubble, collapse of the stock market, and end of the credit explosion has left most middle class families no better off than they were 20 years ago. Wealth and income inequality are at levels not seen since the 1920's. Outsourcing of blue and white collar jobs, and now R&D, is hurting the middle class, which cannot find the educational resources to increase their skills and value-added contributions.

The 21st century appears to be revealing itself as a multipolar world of rising and falling nation states jockeying for economic, political and military position in a weakening global system with shrinking popular legitimacy beset by growing conflict. Brazil, Turkey, India, China, Russia, America, Germany, Japan—are the actors in a world that Metternich would recognize. Now, who would have guessed that would be the case in 1999?”